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Where AI Actually Works in Weather Forecasting: AIFS, GenCast, and the Physics Models That Still Won't Retire

ECMWF now runs a machine-learned model operationally next to fifty years of physics code, Google DeepMind's GenCast beats the best human-built ensemble on 97% of test targets, and NVIDIA just open-sourced the stack — but nobody's using any of it to call a hurricane evacuation.